How Payroll Prediction Can Help UK Hospitality Leaders Manage Wage Increases in 2025

The UK hospitality sector is facing another significant shift as the National Living Wage (NLW) rises to £12.21 per hour for over 21s from April 2025. With labour costs already being one of the biggest expenses in hospitality, this 10% increase poses a challenge for business owners trying to balance payroll with profitability. 

UK Pay Increase (Source: UK Government) 

To stay ahead, hospitality leaders need accurate payroll forecasting to monitor costs, predict trends, and make data-driven decisions. Alkimii’s Payroll Prediction provides real-time insights that help businesses control wage expenses while maintaining operational efficiency. 

Why Payroll Prediction is Essential for UK Hospitality in 2025 

Payroll forecasting is no longer a luxury; it’s a necessity for hospitality businesses facing rising costs. With payroll often accounting for 30-50% of revenue, a lack of visibility can lead to unexpected budget overruns. 

Key challenges hospitality businesses face with payroll: 

• Wage compression – As NLW rises, maintaining fair pay differentials for experienced staff becomes difficult. 

• Seasonal fluctuations – Hospitality businesses need to adjust payroll costs in response to demand shifts. 

• Rising operating costs – Increases in rent, utilities, and supply costs add pressure to already tight margins. 

• Labour shortages – Efficient payroll forecasting helps attract and retain staff with competitive yet sustainable wages. 

By leveraging payroll prediction tools, UK hospitality leaders can forecast expenses accurately, reduce overspending, and make informed financial decisions. 

How Alkimii’s Payroll Prediction Helps Hospitality Businesses Stay in Control 

Forecast vs. Actual Payroll Tracking

Alkimii enables businesses to compare forecasted payroll costs with actual expenditure in real-time. This helps managers: 

• Identify payroll inefficiencies before they become major financial issues. 

• Adjust staffing levels to prevent unnecessary wage costs. 

• Make informed decisions about shift allocations to optimise labour costs. 

Learn more about Alkimii’s Payroll Forecasting 

Payroll Percentage Monitoring

A key metric in hospitality is payroll as a percentage of revenue. With Alkimii, businesses can: 

• Set payroll percentage targets to align labour costs with revenue. 

• Monitor daily variances to ensure wage costs stay within budget. 

• Adjust staffing levels dynamically to maintain profitability. 

Site-to-Site Performance Benchmarking

For multi-location hospitality businesses, benchmarking payroll performance is crucial. Alkimii allows managers to: 

• Compare payroll costs across different sites. 

• Identify high-performing locations and apply successful staffing strategies elsewhere. 

• Spot cost inefficiencies and make data-driven adjustments. 

Historical Payroll Trends for Smarter Forecasting

Alkimii provides access to historical payroll trends, helping businesses plan for seasonal peaks and off-peak periods. Using past data, managers can: 

• Predict future payroll costs more accurately. 

• Set realistic labour budgets based on previous performance. 

• Identify opportunities to reduce overtime and optimise shifts. 

How Payroll Prediction Can Future-Proof UK Hospitality Businesses 

Optimising Workforce Planning

With payroll forecasting, businesses can match staffing levels to customer demand more effectively, reducing labour waste while maintaining service quality. 

Adapting to Future Wage Increases

The UK government has a long-term goal of increasing wages in line with inflation. By implementing payroll prediction tools now, businesses can prepare for future cost increases without sudden financial shocks.  

Increasing Staff Retention

Competitive wages are important, but so is pay consistency. Payroll forecasting ensures businesses pay staff on time and accurately, improving employee satisfaction and retention. 

With the National Living Wage rising in April 2025, UK hospitality businesses must take a proactive approach to payroll management. By leveraging Alkimii’s Payroll Prediction, businesses can gain better control over labour costs, optimise workforce planning, and ensure financial stability. 

Investing in payroll forecasting today will help hospitality leaders navigate wage increases efficiently while maintaining profitability.  

Request a demo of Alkimii’s Payroll Prediction today and see how smarter payroll management can transform your business.